Barack Obama As Curious George

Personality vs. policy in Obama polling

On its face, the idea that an incumbent officeholder can be reelected when more Americans disapprove of his or her job performance than approve seems unlikely. After all, if voters don't like the job you're doing, why would they give you the chance to keep doing it?

But President Obama, whose job-approval ratings are mired well south of 50 percent, has an important factor breaking his way as he seeks another term: Americans still overwhelmingly like the guy.

There is a partial correlation, pollsters say, between a politician's job-approval ratings and favorability ratings. Favorability ratings generally represent a ceiling, above which job-approval ratings do not rise. And poor job-approval ratings, over the long term, can prove a drag on an incumbent's favorability ratings. A short-term drop in approval ratings doesn't portend a corresponding drop in personal favorability—but when favorable numbers begin to descend, it's an ominous sign for anyone planning to run for another term.

Polling consistently shows that the majority of Americans view Obama favorably, even while they increasingly disagree with his job performance. There is a nuance to voter sentiment, pollsters say, one that provides Obama with a path to reelection. But the disconnect between the two numbers, if it ever shrinks, could also become a leading indicator that the president's chances for a second term are headed south.

"I consistently find in focus groups that swing voters like Obama personally. But they feel let down by his policies. They believe he is working hard, but going in the wrong direction," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster at Public Opinion Strategies. Obama "is in danger, though, of becoming Jimmy Carter: Likeable, but unable to lead the country out of difficult times."

Bill Clinton offered a clear example; in 1994, Clinton's approval rating dropped to a low of 38 percent, as measured by the Pew Research Center. Clinton endured a period, from March 1994 to October 1995, during which his approval rating hit 50 percent only once. And yet, during that same period, his approval rating stayed strong, starting around 58 percent and ending, after only a single dip below the 50 percent mark, at 56 percent in January 1996. Beginning with that January poll, Clinton's approval rating rebounded; by November, when he asked voters for a second term, his job-approval rate stood at 57 percent.

Religionists Furious With Mayor Bloomberg Over 9/11 Tenth ...

Religious leaders call on Mayor Michael Bloomberg to reverse course and the clergy has a role in the ceremony commemorating the 10th anniversary of the terrorist attack against the World Trade Center. ...

Municipal leaders who are coordinating the event, confirmed that the spiritual leaders will not participate this year as was the case during past events marking the anniversary. The mayor said he wants the event to come to find a similar tone as the previous ceremonies.

"There are hundreds of important people who have offered to participate in the last nine years, but the focus remains on the families of thousands who died Sept. 11," said Evelyn Erskine, a spokesperson for the Town Hall.

One last thing I want to note something that is obvious, at least for me is that the September 11, 2001, attacks were caused by ... drum roll please ... religious! Using the anniversary of a religionistic attack to make religionistic demands, is the height of arrogance and hypocrisy. Isn’t it time for people to just fucking grow the hell up for the first time in their lives?

I for one hope that the Mayor sticks to his guns and keeps the assorted religionistic catastrophe-users off the stage.

Photo credit: David Berkowitz .

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